Your chance of living to a future date, explained
Your chance of reaching a future age depends on the age you have already reached. The older you are, the higher your odds of reaching any given later age, because you have already survived the years before it. On this calculator, an average-health 45-year-old man has about a 16% chance of reaching 90 and a woman about 26%. Enter a target age or a calendar year to see your own odds.
For odds based directly on the official US life table, see odds of living to 90 and odds of living to 100 (SSA 2023).
How this survival calculator works
The calculator models age at death as a bell curve. The average is 79 for men and 83 for women, with a spread (standard deviation) of 11 years. Your health answer moves the average: excellent +5 years, good +2, average 0, below average −4.
Your chance of seeing a future age is the share of people on that curve who live past the target age, out of those who have already reached your current age. If you choose a calendar year instead, the calculator turns it into the age you would be in that year.
Worked example. A 45-year-old man in average health asks about age 90. About 16% of men who reach 45 on this curve live past 90, so his chance is about 16%. In excellent health it would be about 29%; below average, about 9%.
| Current age | Men: 80 / 90 / 100 | Women: 80 / 90 / 100 |
|---|---|---|
| 30 or 45 | 46% / 16% / 3% | 61% / 26% / 6% |
| 65 | 52% / 18% / 3% | 64% / 28% / 6% |
| 75 | 72% / 25% / 4% | 79% / 34% / 8% |
How this compares with the official life table
A bell curve is a simple, smooth model. Real death rates rise more steeply with age, so the results differ from the US Social Security life table, sometimes lower and sometimes higher:
| Reaching | Men: calculator / SSA | Women: calculator / SSA |
|---|---|---|
| 80 | 52% / 64.2% | 64% / 73.9% |
| 90 | 18% / 24.1% | 28% / 34.9% |
| 100 | 3% / 1.3% | 6% / 3.2% |
Use this calculator to compare scenarios, for example how much better health changes your odds. For US population figures by single year of age, use the SSA-based pages: odds of living to 80, 90 and 100, or the life expectancy by age table.
Couple odds: will one of us see it?
Tick “Add a partner” in the calculator to see the chances for two people over the same number of years. This mode uses the SSA 2023 period life table directly, for whole years of age, and not the health-adjusted bell curve above. So your own figure in the couple card can differ from the main result.
For each partner, the chance of being alive in N years is the number of survivors at their future age divided by the survivors at their age now (the table’s lx column). If the two chances are pA and pB, then: both alive = pA × pB; at least one alive = pA + pB − pA × pB; neither = (1 − pA) × (1 − pB).
Worked example. A man aged 65 and a woman aged 63, looking 25 years ahead (ages 90 and 88). His chance is 0.241 and hers is 0.431. The chance that both are alive is about 10%, and the chance that at least one is alive is about 57%.
| Couple, years ahead | Both alive | At least one alive | At least one alive drops below 25% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man 65 + woman 63, 25 years | 10.4% | 56.8% | in 31 years (ages 96 / 94) |
| Man 70 + woman 70, 20 years | 9.8% | 53.7% | in 25 years (ages 95 / 95) |
| Woman 60 + woman 60, 30 years | 11.2% | 55.8% | in 36 years (ages 96 / 96) |
Limits. The table is a US population average with no allowance for health, income or future improvements in death rates (that tends to understate survival for younger couples). It also treats the two partners as independent. They are not: losing a partner raises the survivor’s risk of death for a while (see the FAQ below), so the real chance that at least one of you survives is slightly lower than shown, and the chance that both of you are alive slightly higher.
Will I live to see it? FAQ
How do I calculate my chance of living to a certain age?
Enter your age, sex, general health and a target age or year above. The calculator works out the share of people like you who would live past that age. For official US figures, use a life table: divide the survivors at the target age by the survivors at your current age.
Will I live to see 2050?
It depends on your age now. Choose “year” mode and enter 2050: the calculator converts it to the age you would be then and shows your chance. For example, a man aged 50 in 2026 would be 74 in 2050; in average health his chance on this calculator is about 68%.
What are the odds of living to 90?
For a 65-year-old in the US, about 24% for men and 35% for women, according to the SSA 2023 life table. This calculator gives a slightly lower figure because of its simpler model.
Why do my odds go up as I get older?
Because you have already survived the risks of the years in between. A 75-year-old man has a better chance of reaching 90 than a 45-year-old man does.
How accurate is this calculator?
It is an educational estimate based on a simple model and one health question. It can’t account for your medical history or genes. Treat the result as a rough guide.
What’s the chance that at least one of us reaches 90?
For a US man aged 65 and a woman aged 63, about 57% that at least one of them is alive 25 years later (at 90 and 88), and about 10% that both are, based on the SSA 2023 period life table. Tick “Add a partner” above to see your own ages.
Why plan for the survivor, not the average?
Because the longer-lived partner usually outlasts either average. For the same 65/63 couple there is still about a 1-in-4 chance that one of them is alive 31 years later, at 96 and 94. Savings and income that must cover both of you need to last that joint horizon. This is an educational estimate, not financial advice.
Does losing a partner affect how long you live?
Yes, for a while. In a meta-analysis of 15 cohort studies with about 2.3 million people, the risk of death was 41% higher in the first six months after a partner’s death and 14% higher after that. The effect was clear in men (23% higher) but not statistically significant in women (4%). It did not differ between people under and over 65 (Moon et al., PLoS One 2011).
Last reviewed: · Sources · Educational estimate, not medical advice.